亚洲市场：中国承诺遏制信贷扩张，致使风险规避情绪升温，日元和美元走高

今日汇评

亚洲市场开盘之处表现为横盘整理，但之后因中国政府网站上发表的中国承诺抑制信贷的过度扩张的文章而迅速发生改变。更具体地说，这主要是指产能过剩的制造业，如钢铁和水泥的生产。此外，中国政府还在国务院的网站上发表文章说，将加大对煤炭、玻璃、电力行业的指导。加之对股票和债券销售实行更有力的控制，中国政府竭尽所能地采取这一系列的措施旨在确保中国2009年能有一个体面的经济增长数据，同时预期不必要的信贷扩张以免阻碍中国经济的长期发展。国际货币基金组织预计，2009年中国经济增长8.5％，而全球经济增长9.8%。

市场对中国承诺遏制信贷扩张的消息反响剧烈。正如我们在昨天的新闻中提到的一样，预期投资者将再次回到风险规避状态——原因有很多，但其主要原因是盈利季节的影响力正在日趋减弱。不过，中国已经最大限度地释放了这种影响，我们看到日元兑其它的相关货币对均有所上扬（其中澳元兑日元下滑1.28％，美元兑日元下滑0.95％，欧元兑日元下滑0.96％）。我们预期昨日的价格行动有所修正，但其基本主题还是风险规避。

虽然大宗商品价格因风险规避情绪的返回而上扬，但金价的上扬主要归因于全球经济的改善以及黄金基本需求的上扬。我们看到一个楔形形成——表明价格行动的方向性非常明显。

Asian Session: Yen and dollar gain on risk aversion as China pledges to curb credit expansion.

Market Brief

Markets initially started the session sideways but this quickly changed as the Chinese government’s website published an article saying it would curb excessive credit expansion. More specifically this meant over-capacity in manufacturing industries such as Steel production and Cement. Furthermore the government said it would increase “guidance” over parts of the coal, glass and power industries said the State council on their website. This, coupled with more strenuous controls on stock and bond sales are all measures the government hopes will put an accent on solid growth and cut out unnecessary credit expansion that could hinder the long term well being of the economy.

The IMF expects the Chinese economy to grow by up to 8.5% this year, while the worldwide figure stands at 2.5%.

The market’s reaction to this news was a very poignant one. As we mentioned in our newsletter yesterday, investors expected a return to risk aversion – the reasons are diverse, but mainly on the waning of the ‘doping effects’ of the earnings season. However, the Chinese release has maximized this effect; we saw a general rally of the Yen crosses (AUDJPY -1.28%, USDJPY -0.95%, EURJPY -0.96%). We expect some correction on last night’s moves but the general theme is defiantly risk adverse.

While commodities have slumped on the back of this return to risk aversion, Gold has risen, most probably on fundamental demand as the global economy picks up. We do see a wedge forming – strong indication of an imminent directional move.