亚洲市场：等待英国央行和欧洲央行的利率决定

今日汇评

本周一股票市场大幅上扬，之后上扬态势暂停，风险偏好情绪减弱，黄金价格走低。隔夜美元区间震荡交易，美元兑其它主要货币的汇价继续红盘走高。市场参与者对最近的这种价格行动似乎持谨慎的乐观态度。美元指数上涨0.22，至77.85，符合盘中获利回吐以及风险偏好升温减缓的态势。美国和欧洲的当前经济形势非常微妙，对经济前景面临的挑战所表示出的担忧可能会偏离金融市场的近期上扬轨道。交易商等待周四的英国央行和欧洲央行的议息会议，会议结果将更清楚地反映出目前全球经济的状况。

澳大利亚7月就业人口增加3.22万人，远高于市场预期的减少1.8万人，并扭转了6月份减少2.14万人的减少态势；7月失业率维持在5.8％不变，预期中值是6％。与此同时，新西兰第二季度的就业人数季率下降0.4％，而市场预期值是上升6%；第二季度失业率从5％大幅上升至6％。这些数据表明，新西兰储备银行将有能力继续维持当前的利率不变，并继续采用当前的宽松货币政策，即使其他中央银行现已纷纷转入中性的货币政策。至于澳洲联储，我们的经济学家认为，澳大利亚就业数据的变化提高了其国内生产总值上扬的风险，预期澳洲联储当前的利率在未来几个月内将继续其强势地位。

总体而言，我们预期今天的欧洲央行和英国央行会议结果都将维持当前的利率水平不变。市场上的大多数参与者都认为欧洲央行将维持当前的1.00%的利率不变，但与此同时预期央行将被迫下调25个基点的人数也越来越多。国际货币基金组织公布了就欧元区关键经济挑战的强调性评论。国际货币基金组织上周在针对欧元区的年度工作报告中做出了警示性声明：“虽然欧元区面临强大的通货膨胀压力，但积极的货币政策必须继续采用...在采取进一步削减利率的政策之前，我们必须权衡其可能给货币市场运作带来的正面影响及负面影响，而不仅仅只考虑利率削减政策可能带来的近期利益。” 欧洲央行主席特里谢一直不愿意将近期的利率水平建立在1.00%这个低水平上，因为这个水平对主要以出口拉动经济增长的欧元区来说不是很有利。欧元区国内生产总值急剧下降至-2.5,突出了该地区经济状况的严峻性。除了部分经济数据出现上涨外，短期内利率市场继续微妙状态，加息的可能性也不大，因为企业盈利开始构成了某种程度的相对价值，投资者也开始放弃其风险规避的立场。

我们预期英国央行将维持利率在0.50％的水平不变，与市场预期一致。在过去的几个月里，央行采取了一些列的积极政策，诸如资产收购计划，预计此次央行很可能会采取“等待观望”的态度。一个关键指标表明，央行之前为了收购资产而注入了一个较为保守的规模达1500亿英镑的刺激方案，该方案仍未完全满足市场的需要，为此央行很可能会继续采取量化宽松政策。在新的货币政策行动被宣布实施之前，央行将会首先完成资产收购计划的配额资金的注入，这样做将支持英镑。英国经济仍面临压力，失业率上升7.6％，预期值是上升7.4%。其他领先经济指标对英国决策者同样构成重大挑战，如国内生产总值下滑0.8％，工业生产指数下滑11.9％，而长期来看，进一步的量化宽松政策会损害该地区的经济发展。

Asian Session: Waiting on the BoE & ECB

Market Brief

The Dollar gained against the major currencies as weaker economic data from the US lowered risk appetite amid expectations from the central bank (ECB, BOE) rate decisions due today. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite showed a reading of 46.4 lower than expectations of 48 while the factory orders rose 0.4%, a rise for the third straight month. The non-manufacturing sector which comprises of almost 90% of the total economy declined showing concerns over unemployment and that the stimulus packages were more favorable for the manufacturing sector which had posted better results. Also released was the ADP employment figure which showed that the US cut 371,000 jobs against expectations of a cut of 350,000 pushing for concerns of a rising unemployment rate expected to be 9.6%.

The equity markets feLl over the employment data over concerns of a slower recovery from the recession. The Dow index closed at 9280 down 0.4% from the previous close while the S&P 500 closed at 1002 down 0.3%. The Euro was mixed ahead of the rate decision moving in the range of 1.4370 and 1.4440 despite better than expected PMI data showing a reading of 47 against previous figure of 44.6. The pound too declined to 1.6930 after reaching highs of 1.7043 over concerns of the BOE adding additional bond purchase plans but later moved up above 1.7030 as some analysts predicting that the BOE will halt bond purchase plans after better than expected housing, services and manufacturing data showed signs that the economy is improving.

Today the important news to note would be the much awaited rate decision by the ECB and the BOE which are expected to keep rates unchanged at 1% and 0.5% respectively although the conference following the decision would hold the key as the central bank governors would make statements on the economic outlook and any further stimulus packages if any. From the US, the initial jobless claims would be the most important as higher job loss reading could lead to dollar strengthening as investors resort to risk aversion.