As metals (and rest of commodities) embraced the “green shoots” story and managed to rally along with stocks over the past 2 weeks, a possible win-win scenario emerges for metals (gold and silver), whereby:

由于金属（以及其他的大宗商品）的好转并且随股市在此前的两周反弹，这使得金属（黄金和白银）可能出现一个双赢的局面。

1. Further gains in equities would fuel metals on improved global risk appetite (what's good for China is good for metals)

1. 股市此后的上升会使得风险偏好增加从而使得金属上涨。（对中国的利好等同于对金属的利好）

2. Any retreat in equities (and banks) could fuel the rotation from financials into metals and ETFs; and

2.一旦股市回调，这或会使得资金流回具有避险性的贵金属以及ETF基金之中

3. Each of the 3 attempts to break below gold's 200-day MA have failed over the past 4 weeks. $935 appears as the initial target for gold, followed by $975. A clear break of $1,100 isn't seen until end of Q2.

3.在过去的4周之中连续三次对黄金200日均线的下探均未成功，$935会是近期黄金第一个上升目标，接着是$975。然而在第二季度之前不会有效突破$1,100。

Reverse Head&Shoulder formations are classic bullish patterns

头肩底可被视为典型的牛市形态

With the EURUSD testing its 200-day MA ($1.3470), the FTSE-100 doing the same and the S&P500 and Dow not far behind, measures of risk appetite in FX and equities are pushing the envelopes. The trade in gold and silver is already taking place. In FX, scaling up short positions in CAD, NZD and GBP vs USD and JPY could well be the emerging FX trade as each bank sets to make the case with its own version of stress tests.

随着欧元对美元测试其200日移动均线（1.3470），英国富时100指数同时开始测试其200日均线，标普500指数以及道琼斯指数则紧随其后， 黄金及白银的交易已经是这样的。在外汇上，由于其他各国的银行开始制定各自的压力测试，外汇交易逐渐显现出对加元,新西兰元以及英镑兑美元和日元的空头头寸。

Today’s US job report could trigger a similar creation from Wednesday’s ADP report, whereby the expectations element dominates the reaction rather than the scale of job losses. Thus, in the event where payrolls shed no more than 600K jobs and the unemployment rate does not surpass the 8.9% mark (exp at 8.9% from 8.5%), then markets could attempt a push higher on the pretext of slowing pace of job losses. The impact of revisions will also play a factor.

本日美国的就业报告所带来的效果可能和周三ADP报告的效果相似，即预期因素的效果会远远超过真正失业的规模。因此，如果工薪总额低于600，00并且失业率不超过8.9%，这将会推动市场进一步的走高。修订值也是其中一个因素。

Canada’s jobs report is due1.5 hour before the release of the US jobs report, with April unemployment rate expected at 8.3% from 8.0%, while net employment change seen -50K from -60K. The employment component of the April PMI did fall after a rebound in March. Last week USDCAD fell below its 200-day MA for the first time since November, adding to its oil-driven run. Technically, USDCAD runs the risk of extending losses (CAD gains) towards the 1.14 mark, in the event of a clear break below the 1.1640 (30% retracement of the rally from the Sep low of 1.0242 to the March high of 1.3050. Unexpectedly weak jobs report could test the 1.1730s, but CAD will be largely driven by markets' reaction to the US report. Negative reports on both countries could fuel the pair to as high as 1.1820.

加拿大就业报告比美国的就业报告早1.5个小时出炉，预期其4月失业率为8.3%，前值为8.0%，而就业人数从-50，000上升至-60，000. 4月采购经理人指数中的就业指数与三月份的反弹相比较有所下跌。自去年11月以来，随着原油价格的上升，美元对加元在3月最后一周首次跌其200日均线。技术上来说，若美元对加元有效跌破1.1640（30%位置自去年九月底点1.0242至反弹高点1.3050的回撤）它会进一步跌向1.14点位。若其就业报告未达到预期，美元兑加元则会向上测试1.1730，但由于加元的主要影响来自于市场对于美国就业报告的影响。因此，加拿大和美国的就业报告若都不在于其范围之内，美元对加元有可能冲上1.1820。