亚洲市场：风险偏好情绪依然充满弹性

今日汇评

美元在亚洲市场全面走弱，因为市场已经摆脱负面消息的影响，并重点关注起正面消息。欧元兑美元从1.3260上涨至1.3386，而美元兑日元在97.20至97.80的区间内震荡交易。尽管世界卫生组织已经将猪流感的流行警告提升到5级，但风险相关货币仍然表现平平。乐观情绪的来源是强于市场一致预期的美国个人消费数据，这种乐观情绪抵销了明显弱于市场一致预期的美国国内生产总值数据所带来的消极情绪。个人消费构成了约70％的美国国内生产总值。美国国内生产总值数据已经公布，库存数量大幅下滑，这暗示美国国内生产总值的前景存在潜在的大反弹。在企业方面，标准普尔500指数公布了44家上市公司的第一季度盈利状况，其中就有37家企业报告盈利好于预期。甚至有消息称，克莱斯勒即将申请第11章破产保护。联邦公开市场委员会昨日给市场带来了一些惊喜，尽管债券收益率走高——市场的定价已明显将量化宽松政策的扩张考虑进去了，但目前，市场继续看好通货膨胀的故事，澳元兑美元接近今年的高点，美元兑加元则靠近低点（比标准普尔500指数提议的水平还要稍低一点）。加元继续弹性走势，这也可能是得益于中国央行行长在本周的证词上强调央行将远离量化宽松政策。虽然我们认为，央行最终将以温和的形式来采取非标准政策，但目前离这一步还有一段距离。

正如市场所普遍预期的，日本央行维持利率不变，日本3月份工业产出6个月来首次实现上涨，提供了第一个表明制造业活动可能已经触底的迹象。今天新西兰央行下调官方现金利率（OCR），下调幅度为50个基点，至2.50％的水平，创下历史新低。这个利率决定符合市场预期，但与BarCap的预期有点相异，BarCap的预期更为温和，预期值是下调25个基点。新西兰央行的附加声明是温和的，目的在于降低长期利率，以及防止货币升值，与上一次会议的利率结果相比，二者都有所上涨，并造成了事实上的货币紧缩条件。

黄金多头返回市场，严重弱于市场预期的国内生产总值数据以及联邦公开市场委员会的会议引发风险偏好迅速升温。贵金属的价格受益于美元走软原材料需求上涨就会导致通货膨胀重现市场的假设。从技术角度来看，我们看到金价有50％的回撤阻力位，已到达（5天）本周高点，但随后回落的势头有所缓解。接近昨日市场收盘时，强弱指数跌低至20.25，暗示黄金牛市的买入价格有所回落。紧接着美联储发表声明指出，从经济增长的角度来看，虽然美国的经济在继续恶化，但恶化的步伐已经有所放缓。美联储的此番声明有利于积极的风险情绪，致使美国市场上的所有高收益资产都实现了上扬。我们购买债券的时间已经得到保障，并且资本流的大门已经打开，大量资金都流向包括黄金在内的替代产品。正如我们之前所提到的，一旦黄金的价格达到或高于900美元每盎司的水平时，黄金的买入就意味着通货膨胀风险的对冲。

Asian Session: Risk Appetite Remains Resilient

Market Brief

The Usd was broadly weaker in the Asian Session, as markets shrug off negative news to focus on the positives. The EurUsd traded up to 1.3386 from 1.3260, while the UsdJpy was range bound between 97.20 and 97.80. Risk-correlated currencies have generally continued to outperform, despite the WHO raising the Swine Flu alert to level 5. Perhaps the biggest cause of optimism appears to be a stronger than consensus US personal consumption data, which more than offset the significantly weaker than consensus US GDP data at -6.1% annualized. In addition, stronger than expected corporate earning from 37 S&P 500 firms helped risky assets. The FOMC held few surprises when decided to hold rates and provided the market with a brighter economic assessment (less bearish than expected) in the accompanying statement. The BoJ left rates unchanged at 0.10%, as was universally expected, and will maintain monthly JGB purchases at current levels. However, the stronger than expected Japanese industrial output, which came in at 1.6% m/m, gives hope that the Japanese manufacturing activity might have reached the bottom. The Nikkei surged on the positive news causing corresponding Yen weakness. The RBNZ cut its Official Cash Rate by 50bp to 2.50% and a record low today. The RBNZ's accompanying statement was slightly dovish and was focused at dropping long-term rates as well as the currency (which has been appreciating since the last meeting).

Gold longs are back in the game as the worst than expected GDP data and FOMC meeting spark frenzy in risk appetite. The precious metal benefited from assumptions that inflation will return on the back of a weaker dollar and greater demand for raw materials. From a technical perspective we saw 50% retracement in gold back to its weekly (5-Day) high, but subsequently retreated as momentum eased. Nearing the close of yesterday’s session RSI dipped as low as 20.25 signaling a buying point for gold bulls looking to get back in. The commentary following the Fed meeting noted that although the US economy continues to deteriorate in terms of growth, the pace by which the weakening is occurring may have slowed. The statement by the Fed supported the move in favor of positive risk sentiment and carried the rally throughout the US session in higher-yielding assets. The break we needed in bond buying was granted, and opened capital flow into alternatives including gold. As we noted before, gold at or above $900oz implies buying to hedge inflation.