Moming Zhou撰稿

纽约（市场观察）--纽约黄金期货周一连续4个交易时段下跌，并且疲弱的投资需求推低了最大的黄金上市交易基金的存量至3个月来的最低点。

投资者都在等待美联储为期两天货币政策会议的结果。本次会议将于周三结束。目前市场普遍预计美联储收紧货币政策的期限将早于预期。如果联储这样做，美元汇率将走强，市场对通胀的担心将下降，而金价将受到压制。

纽约商业交易所Comex部门交易最活跃的12月黄金合约下跌12.6美元，收于946.90美元，跌幅为1.3%。最近期8月合约下跌12.30美元，收于945美元/盎司，跌幅亦为1.3%。

SPDR Gold Trust的黄金持有量为1068.90吨，较前一天减少3.97吨。过去1个月中SPDR的持金量减少50吨以上，创下5月13日以来新低。

上周二收盘时8月黄金合约创下了近970美元的两个月新高，但此后至今金价已下跌20美元以上，跌幅约为2.2%。

Kitco金属公司的高级分析师Jon Nadler说，“很明显，金价的首要目标区间将是935-945美元。基本面上，关注的焦点不在今天的标题新闻上，因为本周二和周三美联储即将举行重要会议。”

利率期货指示，美联储最早在今年底将提高银行间目标隔夜拆借率的可能性有所增长。这一利率即联邦基准利率。

与此同时，由于房地产市场复苏迹象可能促使美国央行取消其干预金融市场的最激进和极不寻常的措施，美联储可能在未来六周内终止价值3000亿美元的国债采购计划。

“就担心而言，超级通货膨胀的警惕者们能回家睡觉了，”Nadler说。

周一外汇交易中，美元指数作为美元对一揽子6种货币的估值为79.485，上升0.6%。

其他金属中，9月白银的价格下跌31.3美分，至14.355美元/盎司，跌幅为2.1%；10月白金下跌17.60美元，至1250.90美元/盎司，跌幅为1.4%，而9月钯金下跌2.45美元，至276.60美元/盎司，跌幅为0.9%。

9月铜先扬后抑，下跌1.5%，至每磅2.7705美元，跌幅0.5%。尽管此轮下跌，因为经济复苏推升工业需求，本年铜价翻了一番多。

铜价的坚挺与弹性“来自本年初过于悲观的基本面预期，与因需求比预期强劲而供给比预期疲弱的现实导致的随后的复苏，”Gayle Berry，巴克莱资本的分析师写道。

西汉志：郑鹏

Gold falls below $950 an ounce on weak ETF demand, Fed

By Moming Zhou, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell Monday for a fourth straight session, and sluggish investment demand pushed holdings in the biggest gold exchange-traded fund to the lowest level in three months.

Investors are also awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting, which ends on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to tighten its monetary policy sooner rather than later, a move that could boost the U.S. dollar, reduce inflation worries and pressure gold prices.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, December gold futures, the most active contract, dropped $12.60, or 1.3%, to $946.90 an ounce. The front-month August contract lost $12.30, or 1.3%, to $945.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust /quotes/comstock/13*!gld/quotes/nls/gld (GLD 92.86, -0.07, -0.07%) fell to 1,068.90 metric tons Friday, down 3.97 metric tons from a day ago, according to the latest data from the fund. Holdings have dropped more than 50 metric tons in one month and now stand at the lowest level since May 13.

August gold hit a two-month high near $970 an ounce last Tuesday, but has since dropped about $20, or 2.2%.

Gold "is apparently aiming towards the $935-$945 area as a first target," said Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Metals Inc. "In any event, the focus is hardly on today's headlines, as the Fed gets ready to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday."

Interest-rate futures have indicated a rising chance that the Fed will raise its target-overnight-borrowing cost for banks, known as the fed funds rate, as soon as the end of this year.

Meanwhile, it will probably allow its $300 billion Treasury-buying program to end over the next six weeks as signs of a housing recovery prompt the central bank to unwind one of its most aggressive and unusual interventions into financial markets. See related story.

"The hyper-inflation alarmists can go back to snoozing as far as this topic of worry is concerned," said Nadler.

In currency trading Monday, the dollar index /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 (DXY 79.23, -0.03, -0.04%) , which gauges the value of the greenback against a basket of its major rivals, stood at 79.485, up 0.6%. See Currencies.

In other metals, September silver lost 31.3 cents, or 2.1%, to $14.355 an ounce. October platinum fell $17.60, or 1.4%, to $1,250.90 an ounce, while September palladium slid $2.45, or 0.9%, to $276.60 an ounce.

September copper gave up its earlier gains, down 1.5 cents, or 0.5%, to $2.7705 a pound. Despite the loss, copper prices have almost doubled this year, as hopes for an economic recovery boosted the industrial metal.

The strength and resilience of copper prices "derive from the pricing-in of an overly pessimistic fundamental picture earlier this year, and a subsequent recovery as the realization dawned that demand was proving stronger and supply much weaker than the consensus had expected," wrote Gayle Berry, an analyst at Barclays Capital.